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What is a peace poll?

Public opinion polls are most commonly used to analyse the electoral fortunes of political parties, their leaders and policies, frequently with a view to advancing their own interests and agendas. But in Northern Ireland, public opinion polls were used as a tool to enhance the peace process by increasing party inclusiveness, developing issues and language, testing agreement proposals, helping to set deadlines and add to the overall transparency of negotiations through the publication of technical analysis and media reports. These methods have successfully been replicated elsewhere, and it is now possible to say what the most important characteristics of a peace poll are:

1. All the parties to a conflict should draft and agree all the questions.
2. All the communities and peoples to the conflict should be asked all the questions.
3. All the results should be made public.

Timing and publication of the polls should also be managed to coincide with the critical decision making events in the negotiations.

When to run a peace poll?

Peace polls can be run at almost any point in the cycle of a conflict providing the mediator and their researchers have safe access to the parties to the conflict and the peoples and communities they represent.

Who can help?

Several states run public opinion polls around the world on a regular basis using local market research companies and/or academic institutions. These companies and institutions can be used as subcontractors but peace polls must be independent of all third party and other state interests. This independence can be achieved by either putting together a balanced team of researchers/mediators from these various organizations and/or bringing in an external mediator/researcher with peace-building and negotiating expertise.

How to get started?

To get started it may help to design, run and publish a public opinion poll on confidence building measures, the desire of the people for a negotiated settlement and some initial suggestions for an agreement from as wide a range of political perspectives as is possible. Then contact the parties that must make the peace and the parties who are willing to do most to achieve peace and invite them all to participate in a programme of polling research in support of a peace process.

The uses of a peace poll

• Analysing and prioritising conflict problems and solutions in the light of prevailing public opinion.
• Identifying appropriate local policies for both domestic and international intervention and providing expert advice on this basis to local and external actors engaged in the process of conflict resolution/prevention/management in the target state.
• Gauging public support for those interventions across all sections of the community, including those opposed to them and their reasons.
• Directing local and international resources at policy areas of greatest concern.
• Engaging politicians and parties in programmes of discourse, research and pre-negotiation problem solving.
• Testing policy options on given issues from across the political and communal spectrum to identify areas of common ground and potential compromise.
• Engaging the public in 'their' peace process to give 'them' ownership and responsibility.
• Stimulating public discourse through publications in the media.
• Building broad popular consensus and support for a local peace process.
• Continuing the engagement with conflict parties, individually and jointly, beyond polling to help them analyse, interpret and act upon polling results in the most appropriate manner in order to move forward.
• Involving other NGOs, IGOs and appropriate states through the publication and targeted dissemination of detailed reports.
• Maintaining the good offices of the international community to assure guarantees and post-resolution commitments.
• Establishing a body of expert knowledge to facilitate more effective peacemaking, peace-keeping and peace-building in general.
• Re-engaging with the conflict parties at period intervals or as may be required after the conclusion of negotiations to identify the need for further polling in order to assist in renewed conflict resolution/prevention efforts or help with agreement implementation.

Tips for running or supervising a peace poll

• Cover all major aspects of social and political life effected by public institutions and government departments as 'the people' and their 'political representatives' often have very different views (and interests) about the nature of the conflict and its resolution.
• Encourage key decision makers to become involved in drafting the research questions and designing the methodology so that they will take the results more seriously.
• As politicians may be skeptical about the benefits of public opinion polls first undertake a program of pure research to demonstrate the independence and validity of the work.
• If politicians disagree with the results of the pure research poll ­ this is welcome - invite them to help design the next survey to their satisfaction.
• Do not exclude any serious parties from the applied research - it is most helpful to test support for mainstream opinion, centre party compromises and radical reforms together.
• If the large established parties do not show willing try the small centre parties first after which the larger parties may decide they do not wish to be left out.
• Start with some simple confidence building questions about the peace process in general and other confidence building measures (CBMs) that could easily be implemented.
• Deal with all of the principal procedural or 'shape of the table' issues before getting into too much detail over substantive or 'negotiated settlement' issues.
• In public opinion polls the elimination of extreme positions, those with little cross community support, is just as important and just as easy as finding compromises and common ground.
• Sometimes questions that have been drafted can not be run in a poll for lack of space. This is not entirely a bad thing as it provides a working foundation for later polls.
• Systematically deal with all preconditions and objections to a peace process ­ people generally want 'jaw jaw' in preference to 'war war'.
• Do not avoid sensitive issues because others might take on those same questions in a less helpful way that is potentially more damaging to the peace process.
• Give 'the people' every opportunity to answer questions about the exercise of their democratic franchise ­ they like it ­ and the results should send a message to their elected politicians.
• Devise questions that can produce a ranking of the major problems in a conflict and their potential solutions.
• Develop questions that include all of the potential elements of a final agreement by way of informing both the negotiators and the general public.
• Do not be put off by complexity. The people living with a conflict often have a very sophisticated understanding of that conflict.
• Use a method of analysis that reflects the voting procedures used in the negotiations proper in terms of both constituencies and levels of support required.
• Test comprehensive agreements as a 'package' as many of its problematic elements will be acceptable as part of a balanced settlement.
• 'Underline' the politically unacceptable alternatives to a comprehensive settlement when it is opportune to do so. For example when radical groups are actively opposing a 'deal'.
• Timing is of the essence. For example testing a 'Comprehensive Settlement' would be almost useless if run months before the parties are ready to 'cut a deal' or the day after talks collapsed!
• Try to retain control over funding so that the parties involved with the polls will not be able to exercise a veto if they think the work is not going to go their way.
• Don't use public opinion polls to renegotiate agreements. Regrettably much of the partisan media will do this anyway.
• Don't assume the work is over once the deal is signed particularly if many of the issues raised in the research are not dealt with in the agreement.
• Even when a very difficult decision has to be made try and include all the critical parties to that decision - however difficult that makes the work.
• When key players refuse to negotiate use neutral parties to feed in constructive suggestions.
• When key players introduce questions designed to produce an unhelpful result get neutral parties to critique the value of such questions.
• Design and run 'cold shower' questions that explore the consequences of failure when the point of 'do it or lose it' is reached. Public opinion polls are an excellent medium for dealing with 'contextual' issues.
• Try not to end the research arbitrarily. Let the parties have a say in when to run the last poll as they are ultimately responsible for the success of the peace process.
• When support for running a public opinion poll is 'mixed' consult widely and do not be afraid to temporarily poll against the wishes of some parties.
• Have an experienced board or advisory group at hand to back up difficult polling/ethical decisions.
• As an independent facilitator or mediator it is generally inappropriate to express personal opinions but reviewing the work done and progress made can sometimes be very helpful.

Questions for the Peacemaker

• Which political parties, politicians, their staff, government officials, editors, journalists, broadcasters, academics, teachers, and community leaders take an interest in public opinion and would like to run polls on a peace process for their own, third party and/or public information? (Clearly if the answer to this first question is 'none' then it may not be possible to run a peace poll).
• What questions do these people think can most usefully be asked in terms of 'problems' their 'solutions' and associated CBMs, etc., etc. in order to start, advance, strengthen or help consolidate a peace process?
• Which Universities and academics have experience with surveys of public opinion in the region and have an interest in a peace process?
• Which market research companies operate in the region and have undertaken polls amongst the relevant communities?
• What polling has been done on a peace process?
• What is the demographic profile of the relevant groups to the conflict in terms of total population, social geography, language, education, age and so on?
• Are the chosen subcontractors independent of all third party and/or state policy or legal restrictions that might prevent them from working with certain groups?
• Are the peace polls being designed to address matters of concern to the peace process with clearly understood research and public diplomacy objectives?
• Is the work being undertaken with local input from different academic, political and community perspectives?
• Can the local representatives work together to produce a common piece of research or should an outside facilitator be brought in to help co-ordinate their work?
• Which newspapers are pro-peace process, have a cross community readership and/or will publish reports in co-operation with newspapers from other communities?
• Are the results being published to make them available to academics, journalists and broadcasters for critical review and incorporation into other peace-building activities?
• Which NGOs and IGOs have an interest in the region and could give financial and research policy support?